Deuteronomy 18:15 is one of those verses that, according to some people, can mean everything or nothing at the same time.
On the one hand, Moses is clearly saying that there will be a prophet raised up from among the people who is similar to Moses. Not exactly like Moses, of course—Deuteronomy 34:10 states that there has never been anyone like him who knew God on such a personal level.
The Text even indicates the singular here in referring to “prophet.” This is not a group of prophets or a line of prophets, but rather a singular prophet.
By the time of Jesus, this prophecy was clearly seen as at least tangential to the prophecies concerning the Messiah. John 1:19-21 sees a series of questions tossed at John the Baptist: Are you the Christ? Are you Elijah? Are you the Prophet? John remarks that he is not any of them.
Of course, Acts 3:22 connects this Prophet to the Messiah; there are not multiple figures occupying multiple roles, but one Being fulfilling that of Prophet, Priest, and King (for more on this, see: Hebrews, Book of).
On the other hand, some see Deuteronomy 18:15 as expressing nothing abnormal. The singular, in their eyes, is meant in the collective—just as the word “king” in Deuteronomy 17 did.
It should come as no surprise that the group who believes the latter are Jews who believe that Jesus is most certainly not the Messiah.
So who does this passage refer to? One person, fulfilled in our eyes by Jesus, or the class of prophets who will minister to Israel throughout their history?
Let’s do something radical. Instead of arguing for one or the other, read this section (Deuteronomy 18:15-19), and ask yourself who Moses is referring to.
In my opinion (which I’m trying really hard not to be biased in), Moses seems to have someone specific in mind.
The mention of God putting His words in the prophet’s mouth, and then holding people accountable to the authority of the prophet, is too specific to be ignored. He doesn’t talk about this prophet like the Bible talks about kings and priests. It’s unique—special.
My conviction is that Jesus is this Prophet, and that everything spoken by Jesus to the people came from the Father. It’s for that reason we listen to Him. He is God, just as Jesus is. But Jesus also fulfilled the role of the Prophet, giving us God’s commandments to know under the new covenant.